An artificially boosted economic recovery will come by spring time, but the equities markets are still in danger of a sharp pullback, said Gerald Celente, publisher of the Trends Journal.
Gerald Lente publisher of the trends journal is back to give us an overview of the economy and what's going on in America that investors need to be pay attention to right now, Gerald, it's been several months since we spoke. It seems like yesterday and nothing's changed in our environment, in our economy and our society, but actually it's been what, six, seven, five months.
I don't even remember. It was a long time ago. Joel, nothing's changed. Yeah, no, no. Everything was just fine. Back to normal. Life is the way it should be. You know, nobody is the streets are dead. The streets are dead, dead, dead, dead, dead. And so is the human spirit. What's going on now is unprecedented, but in the United States is only one story.
Everybody don't look at anything else going on around the world. Don't look at any of the geopolitical events. Don't look at any socioeconomic events, the impeachment, the impeachment DPH. What did I tell you about the impeachment? Hey, what about the impeachment? Did you hear about the impeachment? Let me tell you more about the impeachment.
People don't have a clue what's going on. What's going on in the world is unprecedented. Look at the UK is locked down again. Hey, how about over there? Montreal where you aren't locked down again? Oh, the first lockdown that you were written, it never ended virtually that worked terrific. Didn't it? It didn't work, but we're going to do it again.
How about there in California? Oh, that was the first state in the United States. That little boy knew some gruesome, whatever his name is, where, Hey, you got to stay home. You got to close down your restaurant. But Hey, me and my friends were going to the French laundry. Hey, totally flawed your dollars at dinner.
We could do whatever we want. Sit a rabbit. We're locking everybody else down. It didn't work before, but we're going to do yeah, it's one after another. We're going to talk about the impeachment in just a minute, but let's, let's talk about the, uh, the economy first. So. People I've spoken to economist has spoken to, were concerned about a second wave of bankruptcies in 2021.
And I don't know if you think that's going to happen. Where do you stand on this discussion? Because like you said, where I live we're back in lockdown and small businesses. I don't, I don't know. I look, I don't, I haven't spoken to a lot of small business owners myself, but I don't know if they can sustain themselves after a second round of lockdown.
The first round was bad enough last year. What's going to happen now where they're going to get the money from our government is going to give you some peanut said, Hey, I go on, go on. No, no, this is the bank that we're looking at. Sit down with trends, journal. We just wrote about the bankruptcies. Now you're going to start seeing really starting piling up now because a lot of people borrowed money.
A lot of the companies, the borrowing binge is it's beyond the belief. And again, it all ties in together. What's only holding this together or the governments. The federal rate, the central banks and the governments pumping in all this monetary methadone into the system to keep it on officially drugged up period.
Paragraph, look at the United States. What is another $3 trillion now, Trump, uh, Biden's coming in more cheap money, more cheap money, more cheap money. I can't figure out what Bitcoin's going up so high. I don't understand why gold prices is still so high. Why silver is going up? Can't figure it out. Yeah, you really gotta be stupid.
Not to say it. Everybody that's investing in these things knows that what they're doing, and by the way, there's an end game to this. And the way we see it is they're going to start doing away with all the currencies and coming up with new names to them. And they're all going to be digital. They're going to be digital.
We'll get rid of them dirty dollars. You don't want to touch that crap. Oh, you're going to get the virus. If you touch that dirty money, it's only been around forever. So we're going to digital. Now they'll know every penny that you spent, where you spent it, who you gave it on and on and on. So the politicians, poly techs got it.
Politics. Many ticks could suck that money out of you. Do you think any of these people, these politicians that are closing down every place, give a damn about the people that are losing their jobs when they don't have to worry about anything? Because they steal our money in the name of taxes and they get their benefits.
They go, they get their money coming in. They have their healthcare, they got their pensions. So they're going to go digital, you raised an interesting point. Well, we were talking offline and, uh, the politicians have closed down small businesses, but left Costco, Walmart and the box stores open well with certain restrictions.
Why do you think they've done that? I mean, I don't know if there's a, there must be some sort of scientific reason as to why smaller businesses that are closed down. Right. Yeah, right. Oh, they've provided all the science that we could never ever see everything they do. Again, we put out a magazine it's usually around 90 to 100 pages a week.
No, Ed's only facts. I was the SA I was the assistant to the secretary of the New York state Senate. At 26 years old, it was the worst job I ever had to watch grown men grovel to suck their way up to the top. You know who these slimy little boys and girls are. They're the people you hated in high school and college that wanted to be class president of the head of the student council.
They're more wrong, little imbecile, arrogant people. They don't know anything and why they let the bigs go. Did you ever hear a thing called campaign contributions? That's what morons and imbeciles call it. It's called bribes and payoffs to pigs could get anything. Hey to big banks. They're too big to fail.
You could go screw yourself. Oh, they're too big to jail, but listen, if you break that curfew, the Kami COVID cops are gonna come out and get you a, but how about that? JP Morgan chase gang. You know, the ones that rigged the ones that rig the precious metals market and just got fine. $900 million for. Oh, yeah.
That's you're right. Let him pay a little couple of pennies. Dell has been doing this for years. They screwed how many people had invested in this. They could get away with it. They don't have to, they don't have to put you, we, the little people of slave Landia, we get fine to the hardest degree of the law.
That's why the big zero allowed to do anything because we've been sold out. What is going on now, again, we only put the facts in the magazine, not one scintilla of scientific evidence for them to be doing what they're doing and the stupid masks that everybody wears. If you, anybody could read, read the box, these masks do not eliminate exposure to any risk.
Of any disease or infection. All right. So what they're doing? Oh, Hey, I'm in, uh, I'm in Italy. You have to be one meter apart. Well, I'm in France. You have to be 1.3 meters apart. I am in the United States. You must be six feet apart. Hey, the wind's blowing everywhere. When you're outside. Oh. And when you sit down in a restaurant, when they allow you to open, you're allowed to eat without a mask on, but when you stand up, you must put that mask on.
How about go screw yourself? These are the same number sills that had music kid hiding under a desk in case an atom bomb went off like that was going to save my life. The streets are empty. Businesses are dead. There's going to be a fake bounce back around. Probably spring. Let's talk about this bounce back.
You wrote about this and the trends journal. I'm just going to quote your report here. Guests. There will be an economic bounce back, but it will be a sharp move upward followed by a long-term downturn as the greatest depression spreads across the globe. So can you walk us through the timeline here? So what's going to cost us bounce back.
First of all, well, what they're going to do is they're going to dump money in and things are going to come back. They're going to start easing these things up. And again, it's everything about, you got to get vaccinated yet. Did drug deal there, right? You got to get vaccinated. Hey, my drug is okay. Take my drug anyway, that's going to be the line and it is the line.
And we write about that. Actually quoting everybody from the auto industry to the travel industry one after another, Oh, when the vaccine comes everything's so it's going to come back, but there's not going to be new jobs. They're not going to beat. They're going to, what they're going to be doing is going to be replacing older jobs.
That jobs that have been lost, new ones, won't be new ones won't be coming in. So it's going to look like a bounce-back. Yeah, this is going to come back, but it's artificial what's been destroyed, has been destroyed. The people that have been out in a business, look at the numbers, look at the numbers. What are they saying?
Yelp 60% of the restaurants aren't going to open. I was just reading from out of, uh, I think it was Ontario. Uh, they said that 114,000 businesses have already gone out. And then again, you look at who's dying. Why and where, and these are the facts. The recovery rate is only 99.7% between people one to 20 years old.
It's only 99.997%. In Canada, I'm not making these numbers up there from the government. 70% of the people that have died are from nursing homes in the UK 388 people, 388. People that have died from this are under the age of 60. Now we're talking March, April, may, June, July, August, September, October, November 87.
But now we're in January and you're telling me that 388 people on the under that age died is what are you telling me to stuff for them? I'm telling you there's going to be a fake recovery. It's going to be the Biden bounce. It's going to look great, but it's going to go down big time. Don't you think that as an investor now would probably be a good time to be investing, because like you said, We're at a pretty bad place already.
Any bounce back from here will look good on paper, but if I also just look good for your bank account, right. If you're an investor you're buying in at the, sort of the lows in terms of an economic condition, and it can only go up from here, right? Well, yes and no, because when you're looking at the equity markets in the United States, your PE ratio is over 22.
And you know, the average is right around 16, something in 17. So the way over price, that's where you're seeing a lot of money, by the way. Now, going into the emerging markets, the gamblers are going there because they, every, if there's going to be, or it goes, it's going to be a dreadful winter if it, for the economy.
So the, the gamblers are going into the, into the emerging markets. They'll still keep, I believe that we're going to see a shop. Bear market in the United States. It's going to happen. Yeah, sure. At Baird market in the United States. So why are people going overseas then for the emerging markets? Well, your, your PE ratios are a lot lower and they borrow money in dollars.
So now the dollar is going down, so the money's cheaper for them. So the gambling game is going over there for awhile. Long-term we're looking at goal this year to break over 2100. And we're looking for silver to break well over $50 an ounce and Bitcoin it's, uh, you know, again, um, in last week's treads journal on January 5th, we said that they would be a sharp correction in Bitcoin coming up.
And just three days later, four days later, it. Correct at 10%. Right? So they're overvalued right now, but where is it going? Going high it's going to go is anyone's guess as I see it, because the world knows the people that are tuned into what's going on, knows that they're just pumping in this artificial money, backed by nothing and printed on nothing in country after country.
Yeah. So Jared, when you're, when you're making these forecasts for different various asset classes, what are the main drivers you're looking for? Are you looking at an economic recovery? Are you looking at sort of COVID cases dying down? Are you looking for monetary policy stimulus? Are you looking for, uh, you know, our capital flows are going, uh, valuations, you brought a PEs, so w what are some of the most important drivers for you?
Gerald? All of them. And that's the thing about trend forecasting, but you'll also look at the geopolitical things going on. Yeah. So now let's take like where we're going to meet, where are the new hot spots going to happen? Well, it w it to us, we're staying in, in the middle East and particularly areas such as, uh, uh, with Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Turkey and Greece, and not that whole area over there.
Uh, uh, Ethiopia what's going on in Ethiopia and, and there the war going on with the Tigray people. And so now you also had not only Ethiopia, Uganda, you have, you have central Africa one after another, you're seeing explosions over there. So what does that mean? Oh, South Africa. How about South Africa? The reason I'm mentioning this is that being in 2019 and 2019, you had the new world disorder.
You had protesting revolutions, civil Wars going on in South Africa, Chile, protest riots, Columbia, Bolivia, uh, France, Hong Kong Algeria, one Lebanon, one country after another. This is 2019. You had your going and you had Germany going into a recession in 2019, you had Japan going into recession in 2019. It was going down before that.
Now you having all these protests, people were protesting a lack of basic living standards, corruption, crime violence. Now you have all these Wars breaking out. You take out a refugee and migrant prices before a, how about South of the border down Mexico way? Huh? Oh yeah. It's wonderful. Down there. Yeah.
South America is a mess. No tourism anymore. So now you're gonna start seeing more violence, more protests, more migrations. This is going to explode beyond the imagination of the mainstream media. That's locked into one stupid story at a time and always selling fear. So again, you have to look at the geopolitics as well as all of the economic measures that you also mentioned.
Yeah. I like to ask you about geopolitics. It's good that you brought that up. Biden's administration. What's he going to do with this relationship? With our relationship with China, with Iran. Iraq the middle East Syria, what's going to happen to all these different hotspots that we were in. And now of course, the trade war is people stopped talking about the trade war after COVID, but it's still ongoing.
Let's just, let's just, don't forget that. Well, let's talk a little bit about the trade. Well, Hey, just see that latest deficit the United States just had and China's imports. Yeah, just didn't like a, I think like a 24 year old, something high. Yeah. That's how so the trade war had nothing America lost the trade war.
One of our top trends to 2021, China 2021. The 20th century was the American century. The 21st century is going to be the Chinese century. The business of China is business. The business of America's war. Hey, they just passed that budget a little while ago that, uh, Defense budget. And then the United States is everything's going down.
One of the biggest defense budget and the biggest one. Plus when you put in the whole, uh, intelligence complex into it, intelligence, of course, it's an oxymoron considering what they do. It's over a trillion dollars at $1.3 trillion. China's investing all over the world from South America, across Asia, around the world, buying up ports everywhere.
So, and you look also in to 2020, when you're going to look at the GDPs of every major nation, they'll all be negative, except one, China, China is going to have positive GDP growth in 2020s. The rest of the world went down. So we're looking at a China takeover. And again, China take over in many ways. They used to make fun of the people in China for wearing these things all the time.
But of course, the reason they're wearing them is because of air pollution. Only 1.5 million people die each year in China from air polluted related diseases. 1.67 just reported out of India, but we got to watch the COVID. Right. Okay. I'm mentioning this because when I say the Chinese way, look at the dictates that has happened all over in the so-called democracies and the Western worlds.
Where now you have leaders telling you what to do in constitution. And bill of rights means these aren't laws passed. They're dictates going back to China, China is going to be the powerhouse of the 21st century. We're looking at the United States now. And when you look at the dollar as well, it's like looking at England around 1920 after world war two or one rather.
And the pound goes down. The dollar goes up while the Yuan right now only accounts about 3% of global trade. We see that becoming a powerhouse currency in the future and the dollar going down. Okay. Yeah, Joe, you brought up dictators and you know, all these different places. Let's talk about. Let's talk about the U S now who's more powerful in a United States, the politicians or the corporations here, right?
Let's just take a look at last week. Twitter banned Trump, uh, some other politicians, Ron Paul just got banned from Facebook. You know, what's going on here? What's this trend that's happening. Again, we wrote about this. It was one of our top trends for 2018 censorship, 20 censorship, 2.0, Hey, Trump loved Trump.
Dump Trump, whatever you want to call them, you have a private group that censoring the president of the United States. This is on this is it. This is in freedom. You can't say a Congresswoman said that Hitler had it right by getting the youth and getting them on his side. She was condemned for saying that.
I was taken off LinkedIn for a while for say one of my broadcasts that people are obey. Like they did in world war two. I said, yeah, all the board next train to Auschwitz put on your mask. I got banned for saying Auschwitz. You know, I've been thinking about this when the COVID war began. Where did it happen?
Oh, Kirklin R Washington nursing homes. I'm going back to February, 2020, then all of a sudden that free these characters. Look at them. Look at them, look at their faces, the sucker burgs, the Dorseys look at them. The out of this world. All of a sudden Dorsey, the Twitter guy was going to make a trip to South Africa.
He canceled it. Everybody could stay home. Everybody could work from home. Then one after another Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley was the first one to lock down. First one, you could work from home. Hey, all of a sudden their stock started skyrocketing didn't they didn't I think, Oh no. I think the NASDAQ only went up wide about 45 points last year.
45%, 45%. Now you can work from home. You don't have to travel. And our tech companies are growing big. They're the ones that started telling people to work from home and started selling the fear the most. And they cashed in the most. They are in control. Okay, well, yeah, that's, uh, that's another whole topic for another time.
Jill. I'd, I'd love to follow up with you on that. Finally. I love to talk about the impeachment. Why I did say we would go back to this. You started with that. Let's end with this. Okay. What's going on? And what's going on in Congress? What's happening is nothing they impeached. Trump wants before we said, it's totally useless.
What difference does it make? He wasn't going to get impeached the first time the Republicans had it, the majority in the Senate and they're voting on it right now, as we speak on Wednesday, I think they, uh, what was the latest update? I think they needed Mike, Pence's sort of, uh, Yeah. And these nothing, it means nothing is going to be out of there in a couple of days.
One for reelection, right. If he wants is gone, finished is over. You can, they're going to go after this guy when he gets out of there. Hey, what business is he in? A big business in, Oh yeah, the hotel business. Oh, it's doing great. It was, you know, tourism is wonderful. And then he has all these other lawsuits that are going to be hitting them.
And then they taking all his products off that he's selling. Now, now it, Trump days are over and, and again, it's a waste of energy and time in America, as we should be focusing on the future. And they're focused on the past. Yeah. And again, this is very important. Oh, Mariko yeah. We're number one. Biggest offense in the world.
Oh yeah. Will invade any country anywhere at any time and you can't stop a bunch of people from going into your car capital building. What are you kidding me? Could you see the level of jerk Shugart out there? There's America? I just told you they had a biggest defense budget ever. And you, well, we've got to talk to this one.
I'm telling you, I been there. The people that have politicians are the dumbest arrogant narcissistic freaks that you could put in one room in any country anywhere. And that look at it. How could this happen? How could this happen? I'll tell you how it happens. You got a bunch of incompetent lowlife jerks, running the show in front of your eyes.
But wait, I got to get that guy Qaddafi added. I don't want him anymore. I don't like that guy as sod. Oh, we'll go and bond anywhere. Any place? Any time. You're that guy? Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction and ties to Al Qaeda. And you can't stop people from going into the Capitol building. I don't, I don't have an answer to that, Gerald, but, uh, let's explore that some more.
Uh let's let's talk about that some more, Joe. I want to thank you so much for, uh, coming on the show today and giving us your thoughts. Your time is always appreciated. Thank you. Well, thank you for having me and thank you for watching Kitco news. I'm David Lynn, stay tuned. .