If Bitcoin retraces $20,000 and falls below that key support level, then “something is wrong” said Florian Grummes, managing director of Midas Touch Consulting. In the medium term, investors can expect the price to touch $50,000 to $100,000, with the current bull cycle targeting $300,000 a coin, Grummes said. “If Bitcoin does the same thing in the last bull market in 2016 and 2017, we’re going to $320,000 this time,” he said.
What will be the best performing asset in 2021. Write your response down below flowy and grooming. Managing director of minus touch consulting is back Florida. And I think we spoke a couple of months ago and I opened it the same way. I asked the audience for their feedback, and I asked you for your, for your advice or your outlook, and, you know, you were right.
We're going to play this clip of last time. And you had said that Bitcoin would be the best performing asset in 2020. The question that everyone wants the answer to our viewers S and P 500 gold, silver, gold mining stocks, or Bitcoin. What do you like the best? What do you think will win by the year? End of the year?
And you turned out to be correct. So we can talk about it again this year. We'll see if you're right again, twice in a row by the end of the year, we'll follow up again. But, uh, right now let's start with Bitcoin's price action. It's hit sort of a resistance level around $40,000. Would you? I agree with that statement.
Yes. And thanks for having me. Yes. Always a pleasure to have you Floria on $38,000 is the price I'm looking at right now. Everybody was going. Crazy over Bitcoin a few weeks ago, as it shut up from, you know, the $20,000 Mark, uh, which was the previous all time high in 2017, all the way up to almost $40,000 actually beyond $40,000 very briefly.
And then they kind of went back down and then hover around a 30 to $40,000 range. So what's going on right now? Is it consolidating, is a rating for a breakout? Is that waiting for a move downward? What do you think. I think it's consolidating between the 30 and 40 K level at the moment. So any prices towards 30 K is already a good opportunity to buy it again or add to your position?
I'm not sure if the breakout above 40 K 42 K will happen in the next few days already, or if we need a little bit more time, but overall, I'm still very bullish on Bitcoin. And I think over the year, over the next few months, we're going to all right, so let's walk through your case now. Why are you bullish on Bitcoin?
What's the, what is there, are there any fundamental drivers behind Bitcoin and, uh, and, uh, are there any technical drivers around Bitcoin as well? Yes, I think there's massive drivers everywhere. Um, the whole world basically is getting sucked in that kind of black hole of Bitcoin. And the whole world is too short.
Bitcoin has been the best performing asset over the last 10 years. Still, most of the people are not invested. Most of the institutional money is not invested. Um, you see massive technology progress and development in that sector overall. Um, it's obvious that the legacy financial system that we had for the last 50 years is not working anymore.
So there is something new that is going to replace it very likely. And Bitcoin is the core or the center of it. Is that, is that concerning for you? What you just said, the whole world's getting sucked into Bitcoin. If the whole world is getting sucked into an asset, is that not. You know, please correct me if I'm wrong, but is that not a bear case?
My mother spoke to me on the phone two days ago and she told me a Pell pit coin. This is the last person you want talking to you about Bitcoin. And now I'm thinking, okay, something's going on? Maybe I should, uh, maybe I should be looking out for a off. What do you think. No, you're right from, from a general perspective.
Yes. You always want to be careful if you're a taxi driver or your grandma's talking about investments that are very much in fashion, but, um, I mean, we have seen this many, many times already, and I think it's just repeating and of course, Bitcoin can always have a pullback of 30, 40%. We've seen also many times pullbacks in that range, but, uh, I think overall, um, It will continue to much higher.
Um, the technical picture, um, also is very good. We have this breakout above 20 K. We we've been running now two 42 K consolidating. This doesn't look bearish to me. This looks just consolidating on high levels and then ready to, to much higher. So yeah, I like to ask you about why somebody should buy Bitcoin.
Now. I think five years ago, maybe even. Before then six years ago in his early, earlier days, you might consider Bitcoin a more speculative asset. Many people still consider it to be a speculative asset, but it's matured a lot since then. Um, would you consider it like gold, a store of value? Would you consider it like gold, uh, inflation hedge?
Would you consider it like, like GameStop for example, which we'll talk about soon? Um, uh, speculation, you know, if someone would ask you Floyd, why should I buy Bitcoin right now? What is your answer? I think it's all of it. Um, you want to be part of this thing? I mean, obviously nobody knows what will exactly happen in the future, but there is a massive trend in place.
And, um, you don't want to miss out on that. Yes. You have to, uh, act according to the principle, buy low and sell high. So buying into the 40 K range is a little bit risky, I would say, but if we have a pullback back again towards maybe 33, It could be already a pretty good recipe in what way? Show again. So, yeah.
Yeah. It's, it's kind of, it's kind of, um, it's, it's interesting to observe if you put everything in perspective, if you drop in 40 K to 30 K that's a 10 K difference. That's 10 on 40 that's a 25% drop. Everybody will think, wow. 25% drop that's that's $30,000 is already much, much higher than the previous high.
So if you've bought at any time before the previous high, you would still be making money. Right now. Right. So I wonder what a good entry point right now would be. Would you, would you have to wait for it? Pull back? Well, maybe now is it doesn't matter anymore. Well, first of all, let me say, I don't think that Bitcoin will ever pull again below the rest of the all time high from 2017.
So I don't think that Bitcoin Weibo significantly low 20 K anymore. So your risk from where we are right now at 38 K you would, in the worst case, it would risk. if you buy one Bitcoin, so less than 50%, that's the downside that you have to accept on the upside? I think a short term over the next few weeks, easily 50 K over this year, easily a hundred K.
My target for that bull run is around 300 K. So even if you buy here at 38, K, you can still make. Probably seven or eight times your money in that bull run. Yes. It's going to be a roller coaster. Yes. It's going to be very volatile, but if you sit on your hands and you don't buy it with all your money, obviously putting everything on rev is never a good idea, but if you keep a small position size, you should be fine and be able to run this bull much higher.
I have two questions for your flooring and the first one, why do you think it won't drop below 20 K? Well, let me rephrase. If it had to drop below 20 K what needs to happen? I would say if it rubs below 20 K something is wrong and I would really seriously questioning my, my, my thesis about Bitcoin so far in the last 10 years, uh, Bitcoin never pulled below the former all time highs.
So I think it's very unlikely that we see prices below 20 K again. So, I guess for that to happen, you would see, you would need to see all the retail investors selling all the institutional investors, also selling. Yeah. I mean, let's be honest. It could also be a technical buck, you know, can happen, then it can happen very fast.
So consider that this is I think the biggest risk in, in Bitcoin. And we had such technical glitches already a few years ago. And thanks to the minors. It all worked out well. But, um, this is I think the most dangerous scenario and we don't know if and when and how this could happen. So we'll see. So you said this year 50 to 100 K I've heard a similar forecast actually.
That, uh, Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by 2021 sometime in 2021. So your forecast is actually in line with some other estimates I've received from crypto experts. Now let's go to your 300 K call. I know that's maybe a bit more long-term. I want to remind you the first time we spoke Floria, you and I was last summer and you had broken the internet with your $9,000 gold call.
You said. Gold will eventually hit $9,000. I don't want you to forget that. I don't want the audience to forget that either. If you use the same ratio to today's numbers, we would end up having goals at some point in the future eight thousand eight thousand nine thousand dollars goal. I want to ask you this, what's going to hit, what's going to, what's going to hit that first.
What's going to what's what's going to happen. First $9,000 goals or 300,000 Bitcoins. I think 300,000 Bitcoin takes time and the gold market. Um, and I also told you back then in the interview that it will take a few years. Um, so maybe within the next, yeah, let's say four to five, six, seven years in gold.
That number becomes realistic. Bitcoin. If Bitcoin does the same thing, like in the last bull market, 2016 and 17, we're going to 320 K this time. Here's my question that if Bitcoin. If people say that Bitcoin and gold are kind of the same in terms of the characteristics, in terms of the purpose, why would you still buy gold?
If you think Bitcoin has more upside. Well, I want to, you said that it's independent of electricity, independent of free internet availability and untraceable. Um, so, and with a 5,000 year track record, so I don't buy Bitcoin maximalists, uh, kind of thing that you Bitcoin will replace gold completely. Um, I want to have both, I've been saying this for many, many years already.
And if the Bitcoin and the gold people actually would stick together, we would be able to much faster create a better financial works for everybody. Right. What kind of financial world would that look like? I think a free market kind of world. Like, you know, we've seen this many relation again, just a few days.
You mentioned GameStop already. Um, I think the idea was brilliant. I think it was fun to watch and very entertaining. I personally would not participate in such a thing, but you could see the market, the reaction of the regulators immediately, the next day, you couldn't trade the thing anymore. You couldn't cover, you couldn't get out of your options, whatever they changed the rules.
Right. And that's, that's not, uh, I think it's not acceptable. What happened to GameStop last week happened to Bitcoin. Uh, earlier last year it went from. Under $10,000 to $40,000 in a very short amount of time, relatively speaking. Do you think something like that happened or not? I'm sure there were people short Bitcoin and needed to cover, but I don't think that there's this massive rally in Bitcoin was driven by a short squeeze.
I think the technical breakout above 20 K was a clear, strong buying signal. Right. And as you can see, I mean, more and more institutional investors are participating. They're actually getting forced to participate because it's always a comparison of, of your performance. And if you miss out the fastest horse, you don't look good anymore.
So, um, um, and that will continue. Okay. Now I want to, I want to ask you about, uh, gold very quickly before we move on to the other cryptos gold. I know you've studied gold a lot. That's part of your work. The LBMA has put out its regular analyst consensus forecast. So this is, this is the analyst forecast for 2021.
The average is 1970 3.8. So which is about 11.5% increase in today's levels. Do you think this is too conservative or is this in line with your expectations? I think for the average of the full year, it's probably okay. Or very likely or possible. Interestingly enough, this number is more or less around the important resistance zone that that gold has, uh, is, is facing at the moment.
So the 19. 55 to 1965, uh, stopped goal in early November and stopped gold again in early January. And now Mark is trying to get back on its feet, but it's still challenging. It looks a little bit weak, so gold needs to actually go through that number. And then yeah, if it has a strong third and fourth quarter, it should be possible to have that kind of average.
Price overall for the year right now, we're obviously far away from that number on average. I do think that the average forecast is not above the last, all time high of over $2,000. Why are analysts not expecting? Well, I guess the average in terms of the expectations is not higher than what we've already seen.
Well, I mean the last few months have been certainly a little bit disappointing for many people in the gold sector. Um, it should have been clear that gold needed some more time to digest. This massive move higher between, uh, 2018. And in the summer of last year, um, the old game, nearly 80% in two years now, it's digesting that, uh, basically massive rally and, um, it takes, and, um, obviously there's no real trend and momentum in the market at the moment it's moving sideways.
It was very volatile, moving sideways over the last few weeks. Um, and yeah. And then, uh, analysts lower their predictions and expectations. And in the end of the day you get that average number. Yeah. Okay. Let's talk about one of the important drivers of gold prices, which is inflation. I know you've compared our situation to the white market public.
And so I like to revisit that analysis very briefly and talk about if you still think hyperinflation is coming to the West. And if so, what that will do to gold prices. Yes. I think this theory is still in place. Um, I have no reason to change it. Uh, I told you that it will take a few years until it really gets parabolic and totally crazy, but you can see rising food prices everywhere.
Everything's getting much more expensive. And in terms of Bitcoin, everything's getting more cheap. It's getting cheaper and gold has. Uh, right now a little bit of challenging time, but I just explained, I think it's basically because it had a massive operation. It needs to digest those move moves and it will be ready in a few months, I guess.
It's ready to move higher again. Um, I'm not worried. You also have to be very careful with the statistics. I don't trust any of those who want to calculate the exact inflation numbers. Most of those. Uh, are basically using, uh, numbers that are not really representative. And most people don't buy every year, a new TV, but they buy food every day and these are going up.
So, um, I think you have to be careful with these kinds of statistics in our day-to-day life. And I think most of the viewers will agree with me. Things are getting more expensive. So for example, Health insurance. I think it's up 10% last year. Um, you've seen most of the commodity prices going through the roof.
Copper super-strong you see agricultural prices moving higher? I think we're still in the early stages of a super massive commodity bull cycle. And, um, and that will be driven by inflation and I mean the, the money, the balance sheet expansion. Uh, which is driven by all the central banks all over the planet is continuing.
They have no chance to turn this around. So, um, The purchasing power is getting destroyed by the day it's coming first flowing in the, the, the rise in commodity prices or the rise in overall inflation. That's pushing up the commodity prices because remember the base metals they're, they're required for construction, uh, raw materials for a lot of things that could cause a ripple effect on inflation.
If let's say base metals go up, but I wonder what's what's first, right? You know, the chicken or the egg, what comes first? I think it's happening all at the same time and people slowly but surely changing their perception. That's in the end of the day, the most important factor of it, right? Because if you expect prices to be higher in a year from now, you're going to buy today and not wait for a year and that's slowly but surely changing.
I can see it in myself. I'd rather buy things now. And instead of waiting a year, because I know it's probably more expensive than a year. I had a friend asked me the other night, he says, I want to buy inflation hedge for my portfolio. What should I buy? And I said, look, the most direct instrument that I can think of off the top of my head is that the tip ETF, treasury inflation protected securities it's meant to protect inflation.
Um, other things that could protect inflation, Florida. And what could they be? Well, obviously it's gold and especially silver, silver loves a inflationary environment. Um, I think physical silver is a very good way to protect yourself. Um, and also obviously Bitcoin is a good way to protect yourself. And I also really like commodity stocks.
If you have a diversified portfolio of commodity stocks, that means copper. Nita, maybe a little bit of oil uranium, um, maybe even agriculture, I think you should be doing very well in protecting yourself. Okay. Let's talk about, uh, finally, the other cryptocurrencies. Now I know you are bullish on Bitcoin.
You've presented a case for that. What could possibly beat Bitcoin and the crypto world Ethereum already has last year. Could it continue to outperform? Yeah. I mean, the theory is really catching up over the last few days. It's now a new all-time high above 1700. Um, it looks really good at the moment. I would be actually a little bit careful here next week, the Ethereum futures are going to start trading.
So that could be similar to what we've seen in December, 2017. When Bitcoin futures started to trade, that could be maybe. Kind of an event for a profit taking event, actually. So the market is basically anticipating the start of the Ethereum futures and once they are finally trading, then it sells off.
So yeah, it's something in the short term to be a little bit careful of. And we also see that all the small coins are going through the roof. So we are in an altcoin season now, and that is also a warning signal that maybe over the next few weeks, we might see an intermediate top in, in those altcoins.
And then hopefully it's going back to Bitcoin and Bitcoin now needs to make the next move. Then before Ethereum and other coins then can catch up again. Do altcoins typically follow the bigger currencies? Like, uh, like Bitcoin or can they move in different directions? They do. They move very volatile in different directions all the time.
Um, but there is a certain cycle and usually it is that Bitcoin needs to run ahead and strongly massively run ahead. And it did right. I mean, Bitcoin broke through all time highs and had been running for, I think, two and a half months. And now Bitcoin has been consolidating over the last four or five weeks while now, Ethereum.
Is exploding. And once it theory takes the lead, then it doesn't take much more time and the altcoins are catching up. So there is this cycle or a pattern to it. And, uh, the, the only warning signal that I have to give in the short-term is I think maybe a few more days, and then you probably want to take some profits and I can only strongly recommend that these smaller icons is everything's super speculative.
You can participate if you want. What do you need to buy low? And you need to take profits. I recommend our quiet exit strategy. That means you take 50% off the table rather quickly. And that actually gives you a very good mental set up to let the rest of your gains basically run higher. Okay, great. And, uh, I'll, I'll close this conversation with the same question I asked you last time, what will be the best asset in 2021?
What's your prediction this year? Well, I think it's going to be Bitcoin again. Okay. All right. Well, we'll follow up soon. I'm sure. Before the end of the year. So, uh, we can talk about this again and, uh, having an update. Thank you very much for coming on the show today, Florida. And I appreciate your update today.
Thank you very much. Thank you very much, David. And thank you for watching. I'm David Linn. Stay tuned for more. .